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Lucas aggregate supply function
The Lucas aggregate supply function or Lucas 'surprise' supply function, based on the Lucas imperfect information model, is a representation of aggregate supply based on the work of new classical economist Robert Lucas. The model states that economic output is a function of money or price "surprise." The model accounts for the empirically based trade off between output and prices represented by the Phillips curve, but the function breaks from the Phillips curve since only unanticipated price level changes lead to changes in output. The model accounts for empirically observed short-run correlations between output and prices, but maintains the neutrality of money (the absence of a price or money supply relationship with output and employment) in the long-run. The policy ineffectiveness proposition extends the model by arguing that, since people with rational expectations cannot be systematically surprised by monetary policy, monetary policy cannot be used to systematically influence the economy.
== Background ==
New classical made its first attempt to model aggregate supply in Lucas and Leonard Rapping (1969). In this earlier model, supply (specifically labor supply) is a direct function of real wages: More work will be done when real wages are high and less when they are low. Under this model, unemployment is "voluntary."〔Snowdon and Vane (2005), 233.〕 In 1972 Lucas made a second attempt at modelling aggregate supply.〔 This attempt drew from Milton Friedman's natural rate hypothesis that challenged the Phillips curve.〔Snowdon and Vane (2003), 453.〕 Lucas supported his original, theoretical paper that outlined the surprise based supply curve with an empirical paper that demonstrated that countries with a history of stable price levels exhibit larger effects in response to monetary policy than countries where prices have been volatile.〔
Lucas's model dominated new classical economic business cycle theory until 1982 when real business cycle theory, starting with Finn E. Kydland and Edward C. Prescott, replaced Lucas's theory of a money driven business cycle with a strictly supply based model that used technology and other real shocks to explain fluctuations in output.〔Snowdon and Vane (2005), 295.〕
抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』
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